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Uncovering the Canadian Equity Market

July 10, 2020

Passive index funds are a simple and fast way for investors to access a diversified portfolio. These funds provide the investor with index returns for a low cost. However, not all indices are the same with some being better suited for passive exposure than others.

As an example, the Canadian market defined by the S&P/TSX Composite consists of 230 companies and has historically been heavily weighted to the Energy and Financials sector. On the other hand, the US market defined by the S&P 500 consists of 505 companies that represent a much more broad based economy and therefore balanced index. Often investors fail to realize these flaws before buying the Canadian market passively thinking they are buying a diversified portfolio.

The two charts illustrate the historical sector exposure of the US vs. Canada – as you can see in the bottom graph, representing the Canadian market, there is a notable concentration in Energy and Financials in Canada.

S&P500

S&P/TSX Composite

Given the smaller size of the Canadian market, companies have a tougher time growing into global leaders. Comparatively, the U.S. is home to most of the largest companies in their respective industries. This is not to say that global leaders do not come out of Canada – for example, we have Shopify in e-commerce and CAE in aviation training. However, when a company outgrows the Canadian market and sees success globally the ability for one company to dominate the index is considerably higher than in the U.S.. The best example of this was the Canadian telecom giant Nortel which at it’s height in 2000 accounted for 35% of the index.

In order to avoid these potential pitfalls of the Canadian market, the best solution is to invest in a strategy that does not look like the broad index. Typical active share numbers (a measure of how different your portfolio looks from the index with 100 being completely different and 0 being exactly the same) for Canadian equity funds usually fall into the 50’s[i] – essentially mimicking the index. This is a result of two factors: the first is that given the size of the market large funds gravitate towards the larger market cap names to ensure liquidity and the second is that portfolio managers protect their jobs by providing index-like returns rather than deviating too far from the index.

The Bristol Gate Canadian Equity strategy – with an active share of over 70 – pairs and complements both passive indexes or more typical Canadian equity managers. As you can see below, the sector allocations below show the meaningful difference between the Canadian strategy and the S&P/TSX Composite.

With large weightings in Financials, Energy and Materials, the TSX will perform well in an environment when these sectors are strong. Conversely, our Canadian Equity strategy will trail in this environment. However, the benefit of diversification is that in adding the Strategy to a more index-looking product, when the dominant sectors lag, the Strategy will perform better.

While the breadth of the Canadian market will never be able to match the U.S. market, there are still a number of quality companies across different sectors – some that are widely owned and some that are smaller and under the radar. In a market dominated by certain sectors and few large companies, we believe the importance of decerning investment managers is even more important.

[i]https://cdn.canadiancouchpotato.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Active-Share-Doesnt-LIve-Up-to-the-Hype.pdf

Important Disclosures

There is a risk of loss inherent in any investment; past performance is not indicative of future results. Prospective and existing investors in Bristol Gate’s pooled funds or ETF funds should refer to the fund’s offering documents which outline the risk factors associated with a decision to invest. Separately managed account clients should refer to disclosure documents provided which outline risks of investing. Pursuant to SEC regulations, a description of risks associated with Bristol Gate’s strategies is also contained in Bristol Gate’s Form ADV Part 2A located at www.bristolgate.com/regulatory-documents.

This piece is presented for illustrative and discussion purposes only. It should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities and it does not consider unique objectives, constraints, or financial needs of the individual. Under no circumstances does this piece suggest that you should time the market in any way or make investment decisions based on the content. Investors are advised that their investments are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. References to specific securities are presented to illustrate the application of our investment philosophy only, do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for the portfolio, it should not be assumed that investments in the securities identified were or will be profitable and should not be considered recommendations by Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. A full list of security holdings is available upon request. For more information contact Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. directly. The information contained in this piece is the opinion of Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. and/or its employees as of the date of the piece and is subject to change without notice. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in this piece at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. We strongly recommend you consult with a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Please refer to the Legal section of Bristol Gate’s website for additional information at bristolgate.com.

A Note About Forward-Looking Statements

This report may contain forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, statements about the Bristol Gate strategies, risks, expected performance and condition. Forward-looking statements include statements that are predictive in nature, that depend upon or refer to future events and conditions or include words such as “may”, “could”, “would”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “believe”, “estimate” and similar forward-looking expressions or negative versions thereof.

These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks, uncertainties and assumptions about the investment strategies, capital markets and economic factors, which could cause actual financial performance and expectations to differ materially from the anticipated performance or other expectations expressed. Economic factors include, but are not limited to, general economic, political and market factors in North America and internationally, interest and foreign exchange rates, global equity and capital markets, business competition, technological change, changes in government regulations, unexpected judicial or regulatory proceedings, and catastrophic events. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and consider the above-mentioned factors and other factors carefully before making any investment decisions. All opinions contained in forward-looking statements are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements. Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. has no specific intention of updating any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by securities legislation.

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